As the 2024 presidential election approaches, there’s a lot of debate about how a Trump victory could impact the U.S. housing market. Over the next two weeks, we’ll dive into this topic, starting with what might happen if Trump wins. We’ll analyze how his policies could reshape real estate and the broader economy. Next week, we’ll focus on Kamala Harris and how her potential administration could influence the U.S. housing market. Whether you’re a foreign national or a U.S. expat, the election outcome may shift how you invest in U.S. real estate.
Expert Predictions on a Trump Victory
Real estate and economic experts have mixed views on how a Trump win could impact the housing market. Deregulation will likely be a priority, with Trump likely to push for looser rules that could stimulate real estate investments. Marty Harlee, CEO of First Trust Financial, predicts a surge in refinancing and home sales if Trump influences the Fed to lower rates.
Dennis Shirshikov of CUNY suggests Trump’s tax cuts could boost the economy and housing demand but warns higher inflation might drive up interest rates.
Kateryna Odarchenko, a political strategist, notes that some of Trump’s housing initiatives, like privatizing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, may face significant challenges and might not be fully realized but could potentially be a huge opportunity for property owners to see gains in real estate values.
What to Expect if Trump Wins
Regulatory Changes: During his previous administration, Trump focused heavily on deregulation and tax cuts. If re-elected, this could lead to more lenient building and zoning regulations, potentially increasing the housing supply. By reducing the regulatory burdens on developers, Trump could encourage the construction of new homes, which might help address the ongoing housing shortage in many parts of the country. This could potentially make more affordable properties in various markets.
Economic Policies: Trump’s policies often emphasized tax cuts and business incentives, which could boost economic growth and housing demand. His approach to trade policies and immigration reforms could also create a more competitive environment for labor and investment. This could lead to innovations and efficiencies in the construction industry that might help offset costs and support housing market growth.
Market Reaction: If Trump wins, some experts predict a potential massive refinance boom and record home sales. Marty Harlee, President and CEO of First Trust Financial, expects Trump to push policies that stimulate the housing market and other industries. Deregulation and tax cuts could increase disposable income, benefiting the housing market by raising demand for homes. This could result in a short-term boost in housing prices due to increased demand.
During Trump’s previous term, the market experienced relatively low interest rates, which supported housing demand.
Historical interest rates under Trump were:
- 2017: 4.03%
- 2018: 4.54%
- 2019: 3.94%
- 2020: 3.11%
Interest Rate Outlook: Interest rates are a critical factor in the housing market, and while the Federal Reserve controls these rates, Trump’s influence on economic policies could indirectly affect them.
Discussions within his campaign about restructuring the Fed to exert more direct control over rate decisions suggest that a Trump administration might aim for lower rates to stimulate the economy, although such moves could introduce economic uncertainty.
In My Opinion, How Would a Trump Win Impact America Mortgages’ Clients?
A Trump presidency could go both ways for foreign investors. Trump believes in “America First”, which could potentially impact real estate investors from some countries such as China. However, with non-resident investors purchasing US$60B a year of residential real estate, it is highly unlikely he will take a stand against foreign investments in general.
The potential for further deregulation and lower interest rates under a Trump administration will likely super charge the U.S. real estate market adding trillions in appreciation for investors that already own U.S. real estate.
Love Trump or hate Trump – I’d love to hear your thoughts and opinions regarding the potential impact of a Trump presidency on the U.S. real estate market.
America Mortgages: Your Trusted Partner
Regardless of the election outcome, America Mortgages is committed to supporting non-resident investors in their investment ventures. Our comprehensive loan programs are designed to cater to the unique needs of international investors.
Featured Loan Program for Foreign Nationals and U.S. Expats:
AM Expat Investor +
- Property Type: Single-family homes, Multifamily, Condo, apartments, second/holiday homes, investment properties
- Minimum Loan Amount: US$100,000
- Loan-to-Value: Up to 75% for purchase & 70% for cash-out
- Underwriting Uniqueness: No W2 is required, and foreign-earned income is allowed
- Credit Requirements: U.S. credit score required 640+
- Tax Requirements: 2 years of U.S. tax returns required
- Closing Time: 30-45 days
In conclusion:
As the U.S. presidential election looms, its outcome will undoubtedly shape the future of the residential housing market. America Mortgages remains your dedicated partner in navigating these changes and achieving your investment goals.
Stay tuned next week as we explore the potential impacts of a Kamala Harris victory on the housing market.
For more information about our loan programs and how we can assist you, visit America Mortgages. Contact our experienced loan officers today via our 24/7 link to start your U.S. real estate investment journey. Alternatively, you can reach us at +1 (845) 583-0830 24 hours a day/7 days a week.
